Interactive exploration of wrestler performance through Bayesian skill estimation
What is a Honbasho?
A honbasho (æŦå ´æ) is an official sumo tournament held by the Japan Sumo Association. Six honbasho take place each year, each lasting 15 days with wrestlers competing daily. The tournaments are held in January (Hatsu), March (Haru), May (Natsu), July (Nagoya), September (Aki), and November (Kyushu).
This dashboard uses Bayesian modeling to estimate wrestler skill levels based on match outcomes across these tournaments, providing win probability predictions and tracking performance evolution over time.
Win probabilities for all wrestlers in the selected basho (row wrestler vs column opponent). Click on cells to see details.
Sort by:
90%+ win probability
70-90%
50-70%
30-50%
<30%
Select a basho to view matchup probabilities
đ¯ Top 10 Most Surprising Wins
Upsets where the underdog (lower predicted win probability) won the match.
Current Rankings
Sort by:
Rank
Name
Official Rank
Elo Rating
Skill Score
Loading rankings...
Elo Progression
This chart shows the Elo rating progression of selected wrestlers over time. By default, it displays the top 10 currently active wrestlers.
Head-to-Head Comparison
About This Dashboard
This dashboard visualizes sumo wrestler performance using a Bayesian Bradley-Terry model with time-varying skills.
The model estimates each wrestler's skill level across different basho (tournaments) and calculates win probabilities for matchups.
Model Details
Elo Rating: Calculated as 1500 + 400 Ã skill score. A difference of 400 Elo points indicates a 10:1 win probability.
Skill Evolution: Models wrestler skills as evolving over time using a Gaussian Random Walk process.
Weight Factor: Incorporates the effect of weight differences on match outcomes.
Head-to-Head History: Accounts for previous matchup results between specific wrestlers.
Data Sources
Historical match results and wrestler information from professional sumo tournaments (basho).
Data includes match outcomes, wrestler rankings, weights, and kimarite (winning techniques).
How to Use
Matchup Matrix: View predicted win probabilities for all wrestlers in a selected basho. Click cells to see detailed head-to-head statistics.
Current Rankings: Browse the top 50 wrestlers sorted by Elo rating or official rank.
Elo Progression: Track how wrestler skills evolve over time. The top 10 are selected by default, but you can choose any combination.
Head-to-Head: Compare two wrestlers directly, including their historical matchups and predicted win probability.
Limitations
The model does not account for injuries, sudden changes in wrestler form, or external factors affecting match outcomes.
Predictions are based on historical data and may not always reflect current conditions or emerging talents.
Data quality and completeness can affect the accuracy of skill estimates and predictions.
Win probabilities are estimates and should be interpreted as such, not certainties.